election.beasts.org

So, it's all over now. This site will remain frozen in its current state as a lasting testament to my inept faith in uniform national swing as ~~an effective predictor of election results~~ an easy way to get this site up-and-running fairly quickly.

See you at the next election!

How's it going to end?

Recent opinion polls

Time series of recent polls Summary of recent polls

(Data thanks to Anthony Wells, from his Polling Report UK site.)

Predicted Result

Conservative	173 seats
Labour	380 seats
Liberal Democrat	62 seats
Others (Great Britain)	13 seats
Others (Northern Ireland)	18 seats

Current opinion polls predict a Labour majority of 114 seats.

(Data thanks to Martin Baxter, from his Electoral Calculus site.)

Resources

Sites to read

First, sites with Actual Information:

TheyWorkForYou — Hansard (the Parliamentary record) organised and annotated; also a compilation of information about (former) MPs' behaviour, some of which from...
The Public Whip — analysis of (former) MPs' voting records, and more
BBC News Election 2005 — all sorts of news and Stuff, including a splendid Swingometer (requires "Flash") and other good stuff
and lots more besides, but do I look like I'm going to compile a list of every useful election-related site on the internets?

And some more opinionated stuff:

my web log
Anthony Wells's Polling Report web log — obsessive commentary on opinion polls
2005 UK General Election 'Blog — Nick Barlow et al.'s round-up
Guido Fawkes — slightly conspiratorial insider web log
Recess Monkey — another Parliamentary insider
The Returning Officer — the last two, plus a blogging Civil Servant

"How To Vote" sites

All independent, in principle...:

How To Vote — manifestos-based voting guide
Who Should You Vote For? — short and simple
The Public Whip's How They Voted (and how you should vote) — based on MPs' voting records

And my contribution, which isn't a "how to vote" site per se, but an opinion survey which shows you how your views compare with those of the rest of the British population — and supporters of different political parties:

Political Survey 2005

Tactical voting sites

These all have their own agendas:

Backing Blair — anti-new-Labour tactical voting
Strategic Voter — tactical voting against MPs and parties who supported the war against Iraq
Tactical Voter — anti-Conservative tactical voting
Electoral Calculus — not really tactical voting, but does show predicted results in each constituency
and probably many more — drop me a line if you'd like me to add one